These projections were a part of the annual “IMS 2009 Global Pharmaceutical Market and Therapy Forecast,” from IMS Health.  Experts believe that the year 2009 will give a new shape to the global pharmaceutical market owing to various market factors that have gained momentum during the past couple of years with the growth rates being similar to 2008 levels.

Here is more about the new market forces that the industry will be put up against.

Growth will Slow Down in Mature Markets

The growth forecast for the U.S. pharmaceutical market, the world’s largest, has been cut down from 2 - 3 percent rate expected earlier this year, to a rate of 1 - 2 percent to $287 - $297 billion. Reasons include less-than-expected demand for new products and a dull economic climate. Further, patent expirations, fewer new product releases and a tighter economy will contribute to lowered sales of $292 - $302 billion expected next year.

Faring relatively better would be the top five E.U. countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom), expected to grow 3 - 4 percent in 2009, and acquiring sales figures of $162 - $172 billion.

Japan, the world’s second-largest market, is forecasted to see a higher growth of 4 - 5 percent, reaching $84 - $88 billion.

Rapid Growth of Emerging Markets

These markets referred to as the “pharmerging” markets include China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and Russia, will grow at a combined 14 - 15 percent pace to $105 - $115 billion.

Helping their growth would be the pharmaceutical industry's increased focus on these high-growth markets, greater government spending on healthcare and broader public and private healthcare funding, which will drive greater access to, and demand for, innovative medicines.

There'll be an Emphasis on Specialist-Driven Markets

Specialist prescribed pharmaceutical drugs are forecast to grow 8 - 9 percent in 2009 and make up for 67 percent of the total market growth.
Growth rates projected for the sub-sectors of pharmaceutical drugs are: Biologics (11 – 12%), oncology products (15 – 16%), HIV therapies (13 – 14%). On the other hand primary care physicians prescribed products will grow at 2 – 3 percent rate due to the loss of patent exclusivity different blockbusters coupled with only a handful of new product launches.
 
Fewer Products will Win Regulatory Approval

Reaching historical lows, only 25 to 30 new chemical compounds are slated for launch in 2009. A majority of these would be specialist-driven and niche products with comparatively limited market potential.
 
In the US the economic slowdown will result in reduced growth in the country by 2 - 3 percentage points. In addition other markets with large out-of-pocket spending requirements such as Brazil, India and Russia too will be affected by economic changes.
 
The Generics Market will Continue to Evolve

About US $24 billion of branded products will lose their market exclusivity in the top eight markets in 2009. Consequently, generic drug sales of more than US $68 billion can be expected next year, with a 5 - 7 percent growth rate, just like in 2008, albeit below the 2006 and 2007 levels. Much of the decline is due to growth slowdowns in the U.S. and U.K. and price wars between competitors.

The market for a range of generic drugs has continued to boom over the years. Generic drug products include several types of medications such as antihistamine e.g. loratadine, anti-infective drugs e.g. lincomycin, cancer drugs e.g. doxorubicin, cardiovascular drugs e.g. adenosine, CNS drugs e.g. duloxetine, skin medicines e.g. azelaic acid, ophthalmic drugs e.g. acetazolamide, endocrine disorder drugs e.g. prednisolone, gastrointestinal drugs e.g. bismuth, genito urinary drugs e.g. dicyclomine, etc.

Intensified Involvement of Payers and Health Technology Assessors

Next year, growth across the leading European markets will be affected by payer actions. These include amongst others:

• Increased rebating and contracting in Germany

• Expansion of regional formularies in Italy

• A five percent decrease in branded prices in the U.K.

• A 10 percent price reduction on a number of brands in France,

• The expansion of the reference pricing system in Spain.

Other changes that could have a long term impact include:

• The uptake of biosimilars in human growth hormones and erythropoietins in Europe.

• The adoption of generics in Japan

• The use of contracting strategies across the E.U.

• The deregulation of the pharmacy sector in Europe

• The potential for healthcare policy changes in the U.S after the presidential elections.

While there are indeed some bigchallenges for the pharma industry, an invaluable chunk of the whole of medical industry, it can still expect to grow by focusing on areas viz. emerging markets, specialist-driven products, biologics, etc. that offer a potential for growth.